Ukraine: on the brink of invasion
The last few weeks have been pivotal in watching Ukraine, as reports suggest a Russian invasion is imminent. The UK and US have shown support for Ukraine and warned Russia to back off or face sanctions.
the history
Ukraine was a Russian satellite state at the height of the Cold War, but since its freedom on 24 August 1991, it has enjoyed elections and democracy. There is a long history of its fight for independence, and the country has endured many casualties, famines and tragedies under Soviet rule. The current President is Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is an Independent and identifies as a populist as well as anti-corruption. This signifies how much has changed since the relinquishment of Soviet control; from a strict communist regime in Russia to a populist figure elected into office by the Ukrainian people.
the analysis
Russia currently has 130,000 troops amassed at the border, with Russian President Vladimir Putin protesting remarks of an invasion. The Russian perspective is that there is unrest in Ukraine and therefore they are aiding the citizens to ensure the country continues to run smoothly. However, many events during the Cold War in the 20th century were staged events caused by the US/Russia as an excuse to enter a specific country in order to establish their regime. The Western countries claim this is exactly what is happening in Ukraine, but Russia is adamant that they are only looking out for Ukraine's best interests. The UK has emboldened its position and offered support to Ukraine not just in diplomacy, but in terms of troops and ships; £88m in foreign aid has been pledged to 'preserve democracy'. The USA has also thrown its support behind Ukraine, with Biden and Johnson warning Russia of the consequences of invasion.
the effect
Everything depends on whether Ukraine will be invaded (or supported, if you agree with the Russian perspective). Ukraine has become contentious because allowing Russian control over it opens the floodgates for more. The UK has also promised increased aid to Estonia, another Eastern European country that would be susceptible to an invasion. If the UK and US allowed this invasion to happen, they would be sending a strong message to Russia: Eastern Europe is for the taking. These countries were under control for so long and only recently in history did they gain independent sovereignty. To have this under attack is an insult, given everything Ukraine went through to get to where it is today.
For argument's sake, let's assume Ukraine will be invaded, which seems to be inevitable. The next question is whether the Western countries will keep their word over sanctioning Russia for their actions. US Vice-President Kamala Harris and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson openly backed Ukraine at the annual security conference in Munich yesterday and warned of significant economic sanctions for Russia should they choose to attack. But will this materialise in reality? Perhaps. Russia has been sanctioned before but how much of an impact has this had, and will every Western country commit to it? Germany has been strangely quiet and given diplomatic assurances to Ukraine, but beyond that nothing more. Russia also has a lot of influence: it has the control over the gas pipeline in Europe. Cutting Russia off is important in terms of making a diplomatic stand, but what will happen practically? Countries have not made efforts to invest in renewable energy, therefore, Russia has a much needed commodity that the West cannot operate without.
Boris Johnson continues to comment that an invasion is imminent, and that Russia is scaling up for the biggest war since 1945, with plans to attack the capital, Kyiv. But much of Johnson's rhetoric is Churchillian, so is this entire situation being exaggerated by a leader who wants to seem better than he actually is, considering his public rating is low after #Partygate? Johnson's language in regards to Ukraine and Russia is salient to note; yes he is exaggerating to an extent, but the threat is real, given that Ukraine is actively asking the West for help and Russian troops are carrying out "routine military exercises" in Belarus, which shares a border with Ukraine. The invasion of Ukraine will destabilise the current setup in Eastern Europe and has the potential to upset the peace setup laid out after the Second World War.
the conclusion
There have been signs for years of deteriorating relations between the West and Russia, with the UK imposing sanctions on Russia after the Salisbury poisonings in 2017. In 2014, I remember being in secondary school and Russia had been suspended from the G8 over the annexation of Crimea. The actions of the West and Russia seem to have been heading in this direction for some time.
Consequently, the invasion of Ukraine has the potential to irreparably damage peace relations between the West and Russia, and the next steps decided by both countries will no doubt characterise the direction of international politics for the foreseeable.
*Flag image obtained from Wikipedia, all rights reserved
*Ukraine photo obtained from BBC News, all rights reserved:
Is Russia going to invade Ukraine and what does Putin want? - BBC News 
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